background
Joint analysis of the recently released DESI 2024 BAO + DES5YR SNe + CMB favors dynamic dark energy over the standard ΛCDM model at 3.9σ significance level. See DESI 2024 paper for this story.
In this project we stick to the ΛCDM model and compute how likely the rejection of ΛCDM model can be due to statistical fluctuations in one of the data sets. We replace either the DESI 2024 BAO data or DES5YR SNe data with mock ΛCDM data and see how likely ΛCDM will be rejected at a higher significance level. For instance, if mock BAO + DES5YR SNe + CMB can easily reject ΛCDM at a higher significance level, we may conclude that DESI 2024 BAO can be interpreted as a statistical fluctuation that does not actually contribute to the preference of dynamic dark energy.